Eoptolink: 2Q Profit Beats Expectations; Can 800G and 1.6T Support the RMB633 Target Price?
目录
The Core Driver of the Beat: Supply-Constrained Orders Are Converting into Profit
800G Is the Foundation; 1.6T and Silicon Photonics Will Determine the 2H Growth Trajectory
Earnings Forecasts Are Strong, Raising the Bar for Execution
The RMB633 Target Price Is an Earnings-Delivery Thesis, Not a Valuation-Bargain Thesis
Four Sets of Numbers to Watch
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Improving optical-chip supply, capacity expansion, and rising 1.6T shipments are extending the 2Q earnings beat into a six-quarter earnings growth trajectory.
The Core Driver of the Beat: Supply-Constrained Orders Are Converting into Profit
Eoptolink guided for 1H26 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB7.0-9.0 billion. After deducting RMB2.774 billion in 1Q, Goldman Sachs estimates 2Q attributable net profit at approximately RMB4.2-6.2 billion, up 78%-163% year on year. The midpoint is approximately RMB5.2 billion, 44% above its previous forecast. The 2Q earnings upside is materially greater than assumed in the previous model.
Goldman Sachs attributes this to three developments occurring simultaneously. First, artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure continues to grow, with no weakening in demand for high-speed optical transceivers. Second, optical-chip supply has improved, allowing orders previously constrained by critical-component shortages to be fulfilled. Third, Eoptolink has expanded capacity, enabling the ramp-up of 800G and 1.6T products to progress beyond orders and qualification into revenue and earnings.
Supply improvement is the key driver of this upgrade. Previous discussions of Eoptolink tended to focus solely on the size of cloud customers’ orders. However, when demand is strong, quarterly performance is often determined by whether chip, laser, silicon-photonics component, and testing capacity can keep pace. Goldman Sachs’ latest assessment effectively suggests that bottlenecks, while not fully resolved, have shifted from constraining shipments to easing at the margin. If this improvement continues, 2Q may mark the beginning of sustained sequential growth rather than a one-off earnings surge.
800G Is the Foundation; 1.6T and Silicon Photonics Will Determine the 2H Growth Trajectory
Goldman Sachs expects shipments and revenue contributions from 800G-and-above optical transceivers to continue increasing in 2H26, with the share of 1.6T and silicon-photonics products also rising. For Eoptolink, 800G provides scale, 1.6T drives the next-generation product mix, and silicon photonics determines whether costs, power consumption, capacity replication, and gross margin can remain stable at high shipment volumes.
The report also broadens its 2027 demand outlook beyond data-center scale-out to include scale-up and cross-cluster connectivity. Put simply, scale-out adds more servers and switches; scale-up connects chips within a single system at higher bandwidth; and cross-cluster expansion links larger pools of computing resources. All three network architectures require faster, lower-power optical connectivity. This means the optical-transceiver opportunity is driven not only by an increase in rack count, but also by higher optical-connectivity density and faster data rates within each computing system.
