404K Semi-Ai 2026-06-02 Technology Evening Report - AI Infrastructure Spillover, Memory Price Hikes, Platform Profit Recovery
AI capex is spreading from GPUs into ASICs, memory, networking, power, CPO, and data-center financing, while software and platform companies are entering a parallel test of AI revenue visibility and profit recovery. Meituan’s profit repair, Broadcom’s ASIC acceleration, DRAM/NAND price revisions, and HPE and Credo earnings are the clearest after-hours incremental lines.
Based on 74 new materials from the past 13 hours; 18 background supplements from 13-24 hours ago (<=20%)
404K Semi-AI | 2026-06-02
Pre-Market / After-Hours Summary
The after-hours technology line is still dominated by AI infrastructure, but the trade is no longer only about Nvidia. Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, and multiple industry updates all point in the same direction: ASICs, server networking, DRAM, CPO, power, and liquid cooling are taking over the baton. Capex intensity remains high, and the bottlenecks are becoming more distributed.
On the internet and software side, the story is no longer simply “AI imagination.” Meituan’s core local-commerce losses are narrowing, Alphabet is being redefined by Stratechery as a capital company using advertising cash flow to build AI compute, and materials on Oracle, ServiceNow, Atlassian, Youdao, and others bring AI monetization back to orders, revenue, margins, and pricing models.
Risks are also rising. MacroCharts and Nomura both flagged crowded semiconductor positioning and options structure. Energy and Strait of Hormuz risks continue to disturb inflation expectations. Lower long-end rates are supporting equities in the near term, but the richly valued hardware chain must keep converting orders and pricing.
AI / Semiconductor Full Value Chain
Compute GPUs / ASICs / CPUs
Nvidia Goldman Sachs maintained Buy with a 12-month target price of US$285. The report framed GTC Taipei as validation of the Vera Rubin production ramp, forecasting revenue growth from US$215.938bn in FY2026 to US$410.854bn in FY2027. Vera GPUs target agentic AI, with agent throughput up 10x versus Blackwell.
“Nvidia is extending its growth narrative from single-chip advantage to data-center system-level performance and cost leadership.”
Broadcom HSBC maintained Buy and raised its target price from US$450 to US$600. Total AI revenue in 3QFY26 is expected at US$19.064bn, 15% above consensus, including US$13.5bn of ASIC revenue, 23% above consensus. FY27 ASIC revenue is expected to reach US$100.224bn.
MediaTek Goldman Sachs’ Taiwan Computex notes maintained Buy with a NT$5,000 target price. Management reiterated that the enterprise ASIC market should reach US$70-80bn in 2027 with 10-15% share. The next-generation ASIC is planned for tape-out in 4Q26 and mass production in 4Q27, with ASP at least doubling.
TSMC Multiple industry updates categorized N3, 2nm, CoWoS, SoIC, HBM base die, and custom ASICs as AI-cycle bottlenecks. Background materials stated that 1Q26 foundry industry revenue reached US$48.8bn, TSMC had 73.6% revenue share, and it contributed more than 95% of incremental sequential revenue.
“There is no AI without TSMC”
CoreWeave Industry updates said the company was first to deploy and validate Vera Rubin NVL72. Each rack has 72 Rubin GPUs, 36 Vera CPUs, and 260TB/s NVLink. Inference performance per watt can be up to 10x better than Blackwell, while GPU demand can fall by as much as 75%, showing rack-level system efficiency has become a new variable.
Qualcomm / Intel / Arm A ZeroHedge article said Nvidia will launch a new PC chip to challenge Intel and AMD. The intraday reaction was a double-digit gain in Arm ADRs while Qualcomm and Intel fell in tandem. CPU and edge-AI ecosystems are being repriced.
HBM / DRAM / NAND / eSSD
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Goldman Sachs Korea Technology Memory Price Tracker maintained Buy. PC/server DRAM 2Q26 contract prices were revised up to around +50%, and mobile NAND 2Q26 to around +80%. The key change is that memory price increases are spreading from HBM to traditional DRAM and mobile NAND.
Micron Multiple industry updates used the company as the anchor for memory revaluation. Raymond James raised its target price from US$530 to US$1,100, citing multi-year sold-out supply, firm pricing, and improved visibility into long-term customer demand. Supporting materials also said the stock broke US$1,000 for the first time and market cap approached US$1.2tn.
“Supply has been sold out for years, pricing is firm, and long-term customer-demand visibility is higher.”
DRAM industry Background materials showed 1Q26 industry revenue up 81% QoQ to US$97bn, with prices nearly doubling. Goldman Sachs also said HBM and server DRAM are key variables for Samsung and SK Hynix profit elasticity; only a slowdown in AI capex would change the profit setup.
HP Inc. Goldman Sachs maintained Sell but raised its target price from US$16 to US$19. F2Q26 EPS was US$0.86 and revenue was US$14.408bn. PC units fell 7% YoY, but AI PCs and mix drove Personal Systems revenue up 13% YoY, while the second half remains constrained by DRAM/NAND cost pressure.
Kioxia and SanDisk chain Recent storage materials did not include one core new report in the main line, but DRAM/NAND price revisions and roughly +80% 2Q contract-price increases for 256GB eMMC/UFS provide background support for NAND profit elasticity and enterprise SSD bargaining power.
Advanced Packaging / Equipment / Materials
Tokyo Seimitsu Nomura maintained Buy and raised its target price from ¥21,200 to ¥21,800. The 27/3 operating-profit forecast was raised from ¥41.1bn to ¥42.5bn. HPC/AI sales mix is expected to rise from 31.6% in 26/3 to 41% in 27/3, driving SPE margin improvement.
Ebara Goldman Sachs maintained Buy with a ¥7,100 target price. In 1Q, semiconductor customers pulled forward about ¥45.0bn of orders, of which about ¥35.0bn came from 2Q. The Precision Machinery business is likely to raise order, sales, and profit guidance in 2Q, while the WFE market is expected to grow around 8% annually over the next three years.
Broad semiconductor equipment Bernstein’s strategic conference notes said LRCX maintained its US$140bn 2026 WFE guide with upside bias, while AMAT said AI-driven advanced logic, HBM DRAM, and advanced packaging should contribute roughly 80% of incremental 2026 WFE.
“AI demand driving strength across every device type”
Yageo Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight and sharply raised its target price from NT$360 to NT$1,010. MLCC value per VR200 NVL72 rack is about US$4,300, up about 182% from US$1,500 for GB300 NVL72, with unit demand rising from about 320,000 pieces to about 570,000 pieces.
Inovance Technology Goldman Sachs maintained Buy and raised its target price from RMB86 to RMB92.9. May industrial-automation orders continued to grow more than 40% YoY. Semiconductor, lithium-battery, smartphone, and automotive equipment are the sources of advanced-manufacturing demand. 2026-2030 EPS forecasts were raised by 8%.
Networking / Servers / Power / CPO
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Goldman Sachs’ quick take showed F2Q26 EPS of US$0.79, above Goldman Sachs and consensus. Revenue was US$10.678bn, +40% YoY. Cloud & AI revenue was US$7.707bn, +23% YoY, and Networking revenue was US$2.690bn, +148% YoY. Full-year EPS guidance was raised to US$3.35-3.45.
Credo Supporting earnings materials showed Q4 FY2026 revenue of US$437mn, +157% YoY, Non-GAAP gross margin of 68.3%, full-year revenue of US$1.34bn, +205.7% YoY, and the US$750mn acquisition of DustPhotonics. But the stock fell after hours, showing high expectations are testing the high-speed interconnect chain.
CPO optical interconnect PhotonCap argued that CPO ramp is not just about InP, but about closing power consumption, thermal, and transmission-distance budgets at the same time. Retimed pluggable optical modules are around 10 pJ/bit, while the CPO target is around 5 pJ/bit. Rubin Ultra Kyber rack power is around 600kW, and 800V HVDC targets 1MW-class racks.
“CPO is not about gathering optical components. It is about meeting three competing budgets at once”
Fluence / Siemens / Nvidia Supporting materials said the Vera Rubin NVL72 reference architecture is a 136MW facility supporting 100MW of IT load. Fluence has a US$5.6bn backlog, but also faces an SEC investigation and securities litigation. Grid-bottleneck upside and governance risk must be assessed together.
Marvell Supporting materials mentioned Teralynx T100 as a 102.4Tbps AI-native switch chip, with power consumption up to 25% below competitors and support for 512-port radix. Together with Broadcom Tomahawk 6 and Credo AEC/SerDes, this shows AI clusters are moving from chip constraints to network-topology constraints.
Internet / Platforms
Meituan Citi raised its target price from HK$110 to HK$113, Goldman Sachs from HK$112 to HK$116, and Morgan Stanley maintained HK$120. 1Q26 total revenue was RMB91.039bn. Core local-commerce losses narrowed, and 2Q26 core local-commerce operating profit is expected to turn positive at around RMB3.0-3.2bn.
“food delivery UE to resume breakeven in 2Q26”
Meituan food delivery Goldman Sachs raised long-term food-delivery unit profit from RMB0.7 to RMB1.0. Food delivery was already slightly profitable in April and May. Overall food-delivery GTV share remains above 60%, with about 70% share in the above-RMB30 order-value bracket, contrasting with losses in Alibaba’s instant retail.
Alphabet Stratechery’s “Google Capital Company” revalued Google from an asset-light advertising aggregator into a “capital company using advertising cash flow to build AI compute supply.” In 2026Q1, Services revenue was US$89.6bn and profit was US$40.6bn; Cloud revenue was US$20.0bn and profit was US$6.6bn. Cloud profit has reached 16% of Services profit.
“Google Services provides the cash flow to build businesses with relatively lower margins but higher absolute profit dollars.”
Alphabet financing clues Multiple updates said Alphabet plans an US$80bn equity financing to expand AI infrastructure, including a US$30bn underwritten public offering, US$40bn ATM, and a proposed US$10bn Berkshire investment. Supporting materials can only serve as background, but they are enough to show AI capex has moved from internal cash flow to capital-market financing.
Futu Holdings Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight but cut its target price from US$225 to US$177. The report assumes Chinese mainland client revenue is essentially zero from 2H26, cutting 2026-2028 net-profit forecasts by 28.5%/26.8%/22.3%, but Hong Kong and overseas assets have grown nearly 6x over the past two years.
Robinhood Updates confirmed that director Meyer Malka bought 249,000 shares in the open market on May 28, 2026, at US$80.39/share, for about US$20.02mn. This is not an earnings forecast, but it is a hard signal for sentiment toward fintech and retail-trading platforms.
Wise Goldman Sachs maintained Buy and Conviction List with a 1,400p target price. The roughly EUR500mn involved in the Belgian AML/KYC investigation is about 0.2% of Wise’s annual cross-border transaction volume. The company said EEA regulatory inquiries are concentrated at its Belgian entity. The risk lies between compliance cost and growth valuation.
Anthropic Multiple X/subscription updates mentioned a potential IPO and a confidentially submitted S-1 draft. Other supporting materials said Salesforce’s roughly US$50mn early investment in Anthropic is now valued at about US$5bn. Because there is no formal prospectus, the body treats this only as a capital-marketization clue for AI applications.
“Anthropic IPO incoming.”
Robotaxi platforms Goldman Sachs tracking showed Waymo is already providing more than 500,000 rides per week across 11 cities, while Uber autonomous-driving rides grew more than 10x YoY and are planned to expand to as many as 15 cities by year-end. Uber’s target price is US$115 and Lyft’s is US$24. Platform distribution value remains intact.
China internet AI Jefferies AI Series #47 showed OpenRouter token consumption in the week of May 25 rose 10% WoW to 31.8tn. Chinese-model token consumption was 11.13tn, above US-model consumption of 4.24tn. Tencent Hy3 preview, DeepSeek V4 Flash, and MiniMax M3 are all lifting China-model heat.
Software / SaaS
Oracle Deutsche Bank maintained Buy with a US$300 target price. AI OCI currently has non-GAAP gross margin around the mid-30s. Management said Q3 delivered AI capacity carried a 32% gross margin. Over the next three years, partners have secured more than 10GW of power and data-center capacity, and the AI cloud contract model has a pretax IRR of about 19.5%.
“AI OCI will contribute most of the growth over the next few years, while margins are temporarily masked by front-loaded expansion costs.”
Software sector Jefferies’ Software, Internet & AI conference recap said application software fell 22% from the start of 2026 through May 29, while infrastructure software rose 13%. The report’s core view is “token path > seat path”: database queries, observability, security events, and cloud-compute consumption are pulled more by AI agents than traditional seat counts.
“token path > seat path”
ServiceNow Jefferies materials showed RaptorDB Pro reached US$100mn of first-year ACV and expects RaptorDB Pro plus Analytics to reach more than US$1bn of ACV, supporting the FY30 revenue target of more than US$30bn. AI data, workflow, and analytics are key to software valuation repair.
Atlassian Jefferies conference notes mentioned that Claude Code + Teamwork Graph improved answer quality by 44% while using 48% fewer tokens. Among core-product users, 65-77% are non-developers, showing AI not only improves developer efficiency but also expands the entry point for collaboration tools.
CoreWeave Jefferies materials gave a 2026 exit revenue run-rate of US$18-19bn, EBIT margin entering the low double digits by year-end, and three new businesses -- networking, CPU, and software -- each exceeding US$100mn ARR by end-2026. AI cloud is shifting from training to inference.
Youdao Goldman Sachs’ post-conference update said 2026 full-year revenue growth is targeted at 10%+, with operating profit growth of 30%+. AI subscription-product revenue grew 70%+ YoY in 1Q26 to more than RMB100mn, with a full-year target of RMB500-600mn. Internal ThinkFlow trials lifted experienced IT engineer efficiency by 80%.
China software industry April revenue growth slowed to 8.9% YoY, while 4M26 cumulative growth was still 10.9%. IT services accounted for 67% and software products 22%. More budget is flowing to AI foundation models and customized AI-model projects. Meitu, SenseTime, Hundsun Technologies, and Tuya Smart were listed as preferred Buy names.
MiniMax Jefferies wrote that M3 supports up to a 1M-token long context, with 196B total parameters and 11B active parameters. February ARR exceeded US$150mn, April doubled from February, and year-end ARR is expected to exceed US$1bn. Enterprise and developer counts are up 5x versus six months ago.
IBM Damnang argued that IBM’s more than 30% gain over the past two weeks came more from the quantum fab, government support, and recirculation of old videos than from AI revenue validation. Of about US$12.5bn of generative-AI orders, about two-thirds came from consulting and less than one-third from software. The real revaluation depends on the share of high-margin software.
“Spyre’s moat is not performance, but position.”
CrowdStrike / Datadog / Snowflake clues Jefferies’ conference listed cybersecurity, observability, and data cloud as direct consumption beneficiaries from AI agents, but also warned that security frameworks have not kept pace with agent deployment and that customer data-cloud budgets are being consumed faster.
Consumer Electronics / Smart Vehicles
Apple Related materials did not include one core earnings report in the main line, but ZeroHedge and Nvidia PC-chip clues show edge-AI competition is extending from smartphones to Windows PCs, AI PCs, and local models. Traditional consumer-electronics valuations still depend on whether agentic AI creates a real replacement cycle.
HP Inc. F2Q26 Personal Systems revenue was US$10.213bn, +13% YoY, while PC units fell 7% YoY. Goldman Sachs believes ASP, mix, and services attach offset shipment pressure. Double-digit AI PC revenue growth is the highlight, while DRAM/NAND prices are the margin pressure for the second half.
Microsoft / Nvidia PC ZeroHedge mentioned Microsoft rising 4.1%, against a backdrop where Jensen Huang downplayed concerns that AI tools would disrupt the software industry, while Nvidia RTX Spark entered thin-and-light Windows PCs. This is positive for Arm, Nvidia, and Microsoft’s edge ecosystems, and creates repricing pressure for traditional CPU vendors.
Lululemon UBS maintained Neutral and cut its target price from US$176 to US$153. 1Q26 EPS is expected at US$1.70 and revenue at US$2.424bn. US revenue is expected to fall 6% YoY, while Chinese mainland revenue is expected to grow 25.7%, but online GMV grew only 6%, so a brand turnaround still needs time.
Tesla Robotaxi Goldman Sachs rated Tesla Neutral with a US$375 target price. The report estimates that from July 2025 to mid-April 2026, Tesla robotaxis had roughly one accident every 100,000-120,000 miles, versus Waymo at roughly one accident every 150,000-175,000 miles. Safety metrics are central to commercialization.
“Waymo provides over 500,000 rides per week across 11 cities”
Waymo / Uber / Lyft Goldman Sachs rated Uber Buy with a US$115 target price and Lyft Buy with a US$24 target price. Uber autonomous-driving rides grew more than 10x YoY, and Lyft is building an 80,000-square-foot Nashville depot for Waymo. Platform partnerships still scale faster than a single automaker building everything itself.
Rivian Goldman Sachs’ robotaxi report rated Rivian Neutral with a US$16 target price. Rivian and Uber may collaborate on up to 50,000 R2-based robotaxis, with Uber investing up to US$1.25bn. Initial launches are planned in Miami and San Francisco in 2028, expanding to 25 cities by 2031.
Korea battery chain Goldman Sachs raised the 2030 US energy-storage battery TAM from about 110GWh to about 170GWh, with BTM contributing about 50GWh of incremental demand. LG Energy Solution was upgraded to Buy with a KRW520,000 target price. SDI’s target price was raised from KRW410,000 to KRW695,000, but the rating was cut to Neutral.
Yageo passive components AI servers and GPU/switch boards raise MLCC and tantalum-capacitor content. MLCC value per VR200 NVL72 rack is about US$4,300, and tantalum-capacitor revenue mix is expected to rise from about 22% in 2025 to 25%+ in 2026-2028, but inventory restocking could reverse into pricing pressure.
Data-center spillover to consumption UBS’ softlines retail report said US commercial data-center capacity grew at an annualized rate of about 30-40% over the past two years. A roughly US$1bn facility could lift GDP growth in a mid-sized county by 1-3 percentage points. ANF, URBN, ATZ, SHOO, and M have relatively high store exposure.
Other Developments
Macro rates Goldman Sachs GOAL Kickstart said US 30-year rates recently broke above 5.15%, before lower oil prices and expectations of easing Middle East conflict drove yields down. The current 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.44%, with 3/6/12-month forecasts of 4.24%/4.14%/4.10%.
AI adoption Goldman Sachs AI Adoption Tracker showed US institutional AI usage at 19.5%, with 22.7% expected over the next six months. AI-related investment has increased by US$384bn versus 2022, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP, but layoffs attributed to AI involved about 21,500 people in April.
“23% average uplift to productivity”
Crowded semiconductor trade MacroCharts noted that SOX rebounded 80% over two months. If the S&P 500 sees a standard 9-12% pullback, SOX could fall 30% in the base case, toward about 9k. The author warned that weakening call-option demand could turn from voluntary rotation into forced liquidation.
“Capital can shift quickly: first voluntarily, then forcibly.”
Japan AI trade Nomura’s cross-asset report said US tech-stock options skew has fallen to historical lows. In the past, whenever tech skew fell below 0.05, the market reversed over the following three weeks. But if Taiwan Computex and Asian technology conferences release positive news, the AI rally could still be pushed further.
US manufacturing Morgan Stanley’s global macro commentary said the May ISM manufacturing index rose to 54.0, above Morgan Stanley’s 52.9 forecast and 53.0 consensus, the strongest since May 2022. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq rose 0.4%, and the IT sector rose 2.5%, with AI equities offsetting part of the risk shock.
Energy and inflation Goldman Sachs US Inflation Monitor showed April core PCE at +0.24% MoM and +3.29% YoY. Electronic components and accessories PPI rose +20% YoY in April. AI is lifting the inflation tail through electronic inputs, software accessories, and data-center power demand.
Strait of Hormuz and commodities HSBC’s commodity snapshot said global commodity prices rose 1% MoM on average in May, 25% YTD, and 33% YoY. The report defines the current environment as a super-squeeze caused by supply disruption, inventory drawdown, and trade rerouting. Copper and aluminum are both supported by AI power demand and energy transition.
China macro / AI self-sufficiency Morgan Stanley expects China’s share of global exports to rise to 16.5% by 2030, and China’s GPU self-sufficiency to rise from 10% in 2021 and 41% in 2025E to 86% in 2030E. But domestic demand, property, and employment remain weak, with opportunities concentrated in AI, energy, and manufacturing capex chains.
China property Goldman Sachs’ Week 22 weekly report showed primary-home transaction area in about 75 cities up +13% WoW and +4% YoY, and secondary-home transaction area in about 20 cities up +26% YoY. Guangzhou introduced citywide “trade-in / repurchase” arrangements, but the new-start and completion chains remain weak.
Futu / Wise / Robinhood Fintech clues are diverging: Futu is re-assessing overseas growth after essentially zeroing out Chinese mainland client revenue; Wise’s risk is concentrated in AML/KYC investigations; Robinhood has an open-market purchase of US$20.02mn by a director. All three are more about platform confidence and regulatory-discount revaluation.
China consumption HSBC shifted consumer-stock valuation from DCF to target PE and said demand is “stable but not at an inflection point.” Haidilao, Mengniu, Nongfu Spring, H World, Li Ning, and Guming were listed as preferred Buy names. Guming’s target price was cut to HK$29.10, and Yue Yuen was downgraded from Buy to Hold.
Battery materials Citi believes lithium carbonate could test RMB250,000/tonne within the year. 4M battery production rose 41% YoY to 874GWh, and energy-storage batteries rose 99% YoY. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium A/H target prices were all raised, with a clear preference order of lithium > cathodes > batteries.
Investment-Bank Target-Price Changes Over the Past 12 Hours
Target-price adjustment details over the past 12 hours
DirectionInstitutionDateStockTarget-price changeRating actionRaisedCiti; Goldman Sachs2026-06-02MeituanCiti: HK$110 -> HK$113; Goldman Sachs: HK$112 -> HK$116Both maintained BuyRaisedHSBC2026-06-02BroadcomUS$450 -> US$600Maintained BuyRaisedNomura2026-06-02Tokyo Seimitsu¥21,200 -> ¥21,800Maintained BuyCutUBS2026-06-02LululemonUS$176 -> US$153Maintained NeutralRaisedMorgan Stanley2026-06-02YageoNT$360 -> NT$1,010Maintained OverweightRaisedGoldman Sachs2026-06-02HP Inc.US$16 -> US$19Maintained SellCutMorgan Stanley2026-06-02Futu HoldingsUS$225 -> US$177Maintained OverweightRaisedGoldman Sachs2026-06-02Inovance TechnologyRMB86 -> RMB92.9Maintained BuyRaisedGoldman Sachs2026-06-02SDIKRW410,000 -> KRW695,000Downgraded to NeutralRaisedCiti2026-06-02Ganfeng Lithium; Tianqi LithiumGanfeng A: RMB85.51 -> RMB93; Ganfeng H: HK$66.70 -> HK$78.12; Tianqi A: RMB71.69 -> RMB75.14; Tianqi H: HK$61 -> HK$68All maintained BuyCutHSBC2026-06-02GumingCut to HK$29.10 (prior value not disclosed)Maintained Buy